Australia's freight industry is being squeezed from both ends

Two pressures are hitting Australian trucking at the same time this year, and neither is temporary.

Australia is currently short almost 28,000 heavy vehicle drivers. On current trends, that gap grows to 78,000 by 2029. Nearly half of Australian trucking businesses report severe or very severe difficulty filling driver positions right now. The workforce behind it is ageing out: close to half of all truck drivers are over 55, and only 5.2% are under 25. Meanwhile road freight volumes are forecast to grow 11.5% over the next five years. Fewer drivers, more freight, an industry that moves roughly 80% of everything Australia buys and sells.

Industry Skills Australia has been building a National Heavy Vehicle Driver Action Plan to respond, due mid-2026, covering training incentives, licensing reform and career pathways. It's a start. It won't move the average driver age in a year.

Then the fuel shock landed on top of it.

Conflict in the Middle East disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz this year, and diesel, which makes up 56% of Australian oil product consumption and powers most of the freight task, has been squeezed hardest. Industry estimates put the impact at roughly 0.7% on transport fuel surcharges for every 5 cents a litre diesel rises. That compounds fast against margins that were already thin.

Canberra has stepped in more than once. Fuel excise dropped from 52.6 cents to 20.6 cents a litre between April and June, with the Heavy Vehicle Road User Charge zeroed for the same period. From July through early August, excise sits at 36.6 cents and the RUC is cut by 16 cents a litre. The scheduled RUC increase has been pushed back to January 2027. A separate Road Transport Contractual Chain Order, in force since April 21, requires businesses up the chain to pay operators more when diesel prices rise, rather than let the cost sit with whoever's holding the wheel.

None of this fixes the underlying problem. It buys time.

For operators, that means two things are now competing for the same attention: recruiting and retaining drivers in a shrinking pool, and justifying cost recovery to customers watching every line item. Both come down to the same skill. Communicating clearly and specifically about what's changed and why, instead of hoping people don't notice a rate card update or a hiring ad that looks like every other one.

We work with operators and suppliers across this sector, and the ones handling 2026 well aren't the ones with the biggest fleet. They're the ones who've been upfront with customers about fuel surcharges before the invoice lands, and who've made a specific, honest case to a driver under 30 for why this job beats the alternative. That's a brand and communication problem before it's anything else, and it's one most of the industry hasn't caught up to yet.